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Tropical Storm Dalila Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1005 mbar
Advisory 8 / 8:00 PM PDT Tuesday, July 23, 2019

There is nothing new to report on Dalila this evening. The cyclone continues to be strongly sheared, forcing deep convective activity to persist mainly south of the center. The circulation itself is broad, with mesovortices spinning around inside the gyre. Satellite intensity estimates support downgrading Dalila to a tropical depression this evening; however, given the prominence of tropical storm-force winds in the partial ASCAT pass earlier this afternoon, coupled with the fact that deep convection continues to develop in the southern semicircle, the initial intensity has been held at a potentially generous 35kt. The environment is only becoming less conducive with time; although upper-level winds are decreasing, this is contradicted by a fall in mid-level relative humidity values and ocean temperatures. Thus, Dalila is expected to become a remnant low about 24 hours from now and dissipate in about 3 days.

One mid-level ridge is centered across New Mexico, extending westward off the coastline of California. A second, banana-shaped ridge dominates the central Pacific and portions of the western Pacific. Between these two areas of high pressure, a weak mid-level trough is providing a weakness for Dalila to move toward. However, once the cyclone degenerates to a remnant low, the primary steering mechanism is expected to be the low-level easterly trade wind flow throughout the basin. This should steer the remnants of Dalila on a west-northwest, west, and eventual west-southwest track.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 24/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 25/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 25/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 26/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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