|Tropical Storm Dalila||Winds: 35 kt|
|Pressure: 1004 mbar|
|Advisory 7 / 2:00 PM PDT Tuesday, July 23, 2019|
Dalila continues to be a poorly organized tropical storm this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a broad low-level circulations, and mesovortices continue to be evident within this enlarged center. Convective activity, which has always been relegated to the southern semicircle of Dalila, has been on a general downward trend since the previous advisory. An ASCAT pass around 18z showed tropical storm-force winds displaced away from the cyclone's center. If there was some semblance of organization to the storm this evening, I might be tempted to invoke ASCAT's low bias and assign a higher strength. However, given Dalila's discombobulated nature, in addition to the pitiful satellite intensity estimate of T1.0/25kt from SAB, I have elected to hold the initial intensity at 35 kt.
Upper-level winds which have plagued Dalila since its inception remain strong but are now forecast to decrease some moving forward. Despite this, the air is becoming increasingly dry, and ocean temperatures have now fallen below 25C. The combination of the latter two factors should prompt weakening in short order, and Dalila is expected to become a remnant low tomorrow afternoon before dissipating in about 72 hours.
Dalila is moving northwest in a break between two mid-level ridges on either side of the cyclone. This motion should continue for the next day, before a curve toward the west ensues once Dalila loses depth. Models have been wary of showing a true westward track until this afternoon, and the model consensus now supports a west-southwest motion of whatever remains of Dalila by day five. This was expected given the nature of the low-level easterly wind flow across the East Pacific.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED