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Tropical Storm Dalila Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1004 mbar
Advisory 6 / 8:00 AM PDT Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Dalila's bulb of convection in the southern semicircle has grown somewhat since the last advisory, packing cloud tops cooler than -80C. Still, this entire convective mass is displaced well south of the center of circulation, which is rather broad and elongated. There appears to be some advancing of the cirrus layer over the storm's center, indicative of somewhat lighter shear. However, this appears to be only a temporary relief from the convection itself instead of broader environmental changes. Dvorak classification has held steady since the previous advisory across all reporting agencies, so the advisory intensity remains at 35 kt.

Analyses show that Dalila is battling about 10-20 kt of northerly wind shear, as evident on both satellite winds and in analyzing cloud motions. The upper-level anticyclone to blame for this shear is expected to come into better alignment with the storm later today, reducing the shear magnitude. However, this is likely too late to provide a favorable environment for intensification. Dalila is currently treading marginal and declining sea surface temperatures that should drop below 26C this evening. Without high marine instability, Dalila likely won't be able to take much advantage of the lightened shear. The storm should likely fall below tropical storm intensity tonight and continue to weaken over increasingly cooler ocean waters, and as such the intensity forecast remains unchanged.

An inverted trough most evident in the lower-levels of the atmosphere northwest of Dalila is providing a weakness in the subtropical ridging, resulting in Dalila's current northward motion. This trajectory should curve west over time as the trough exits west and ridging restrengthens.


FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 24/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 24/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 25/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 25/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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