East Pacific/2019/05E/Archive/5

Tropical Storm Dalila	Winds: 35 kt
	Pressure: 1004 mbar
Advisory 5 / 2:00 AM PDT Tuesday, July 23, 2019
The fourth tropical storm of the Pacific hurricane season has formed. Dalila's organization on infrared satellite imagery continues to increase from last advisory. The low-level circulation remains somewhat broad and the storm's convection displaced to the southwest of it. An ASCAT-C pass from 0439z shows a broad region of 30kt winds, while Dvorak estimates came in at T2.0/30kt from SAB, T2.5/35kt from TAFB, and T2.4/34kt from ADT. Given the enlarged region of near-30kt barbs and the increasing Dvorak intensity estimates, Dalila has been upgraded to a tropical with initial intensity set to 35 kt. Dalila continues to deal with strong north to easterly shear due to misalignment with an upper-level anticyclone. Mid-level moisture remains favorable for the system, however, the storm is passing into cooler sea surface temperatures which are expected to fall below 26C late today. Dalila may be able to maintain tropical storm strength for the next 12 hours or so, but as sea surface temperatures become marginal, the storm will not be able to fight the shear any longer and weakening will ensue by the end of today. Dalila should become a post-tropical cyclone by sometime tomorrow, and the remnants should open into a trough by around day 3. Dalila continues to move north-northwest into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the storm weakens, it will become shallower and affected by the low-level easterly trades and turn more toward the west around the time it becomes post-tropical. FORECAST MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Kalassak
THIS FORECAST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT