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Tropical Storm Dalila Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1004 mbar
Advisory 5 / 2:00 AM PDT Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The fourth tropical storm of the Pacific hurricane season has formed. Dalila's organization on infrared satellite imagery continues to increase from last advisory. The low-level circulation remains somewhat broad and the storm's convection displaced to the southwest of it. An ASCAT-C pass from 0439z shows a broad region of 30kt winds, while Dvorak estimates came in at T2.0/30kt from SAB, T2.5/35kt from TAFB, and T2.4/34kt from ADT. Given the enlarged region of near-30kt barbs and the increasing Dvorak intensity estimates, Dalila has been upgraded to a tropical with initial intensity set to 35 kt.

Dalila continues to deal with strong north to easterly shear due to misalignment with an upper-level anticyclone. Mid-level moisture remains favorable for the system, however, the storm is passing into cooler sea surface temperatures which are expected to fall below 26C late today. Dalila may be able to maintain tropical storm strength for the next 12 hours or so, but as sea surface temperatures become marginal, the storm will not be able to fight the shear any longer and weakening will ensue by the end of today. Dalila should become a post-tropical cyclone by sometime tomorrow, and the remnants should open into a trough by around day 3.

Dalila continues to move north-northwest into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the storm weakens, it will become shallower and affected by the low-level easterly trades and turn more toward the west around the time it becomes post-tropical.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 23/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 24/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 24/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 25/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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