Tropical Depression Five-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 4 / 8:00 PM PDT Monday, July 22, 2019

At first glance, Five-E looks slightly better organized than it did this afternoon. The low-level circulation remains extremely broad and disorganized, but associated convective activity has deepened and expanded toward the northeast. Satellite intensity estimates remain below tropical storm strength, and in the absence of satellite wind data, the initial intensity has been held at 30kt.

Despite being positioned in a relatively moist environment, Five-E is embedded within a region of high wind shear, and it's crossing the 27C isotherm around the time of this advisory. Thus, intensification still seems too uncertain to explicitly forecast, although given the vigor of the convection tonight, it would not be surprising if Five-E briefly became a tropical storm. Weakening should ensue in 18 hours or less, with dissipation about 3 days from now.

Five-E is moving north-northwest toward a weakness between two ridges. This motion will continue until the cyclone degenerates about 36 hours from now, at which point a turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected in the low-level easterly trade wind flow across the East Pacific.


INIT 23/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 23/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 24/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 24/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

48H 25/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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