|Tropical Depression Five-E||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1006 mbar|
|Advisory 3 / 2:00 PM PDT Monday, July 22, 2019|
Five-E is an abysmal system unworthy of its designation as a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery reveals an elliptical cyclonic gyre with embedded mesovortices rotating around within the circulation. Associated convection, though deep and reasonably well organized, is relegated to the southwest quadrant of the storm and far displaced from the center. Two ASCAT passes several hours ago caught the western edge of Five-E, implying what we already know to be true--if it was not already a designated tropical depression, it would not be initiated as one given the elongated nature of the surface low. Nonetheless, for continuity purposes, advisories are maintained on Five-E and the initial intensity remains 30kt. This is in line with a T2.0/30kt designation from SAB.
The environment Five-E finds itself in is hostile, with upper-level winds in excess of 15kt and ocean temperatures that are falling under 27C. The air surrounding the depression is reasonably moist, buoyed by the passage of the strongest convectively-coupled kelvin wave in modern history. Models do little with the system, with the most aggressive HWRF model highlighting the potential for a brief tropical storm in the short term. However, given the current structure of Five-E, I do not have enough confidence in this solution to continue forecasting intensification. The new forecast maintains Five-E as a tropical depression for the next 2 days, with dissipation expected about 72 hours from now. This forecast could be generous still.
Five-E is moving north-northwest, steered by the combination of a mid-level ridge to its north and east and a mid-level trough to its west. This combination should keep the depression on a north-northwest heading for the next 48 hours. Afterwards, the increasingly shallow nature of the cyclone should cause it to succumb to the typical low-level easterly trade wind flow across the East Pacific and move west-northwest or west.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED