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Tropical Depression Five-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 2 / 8:00 AM PDT Monday, July 22, 2019

Five-E certainly isn't the most organized system this morning. Shortwave infrared imagery shows that the circulation is rather ill-defined and is combating opposing wind flows throughout the vertical column. An 1104z SSMI pass confirmed this structural appearance, indicating the scattered presence of low-level cloud lines loosely aligned with the center of circulation. Most convection is displaced well to the west and north of the low-level center in a rather disorganized fashion. With Five-E's appearance not having changed considerably since the previous advisory, the current intensity remains at 30 kt.

Currently, deep-layer wind shear is estimated at around 15-20 kt. The bulk of unfavorable winds aloft arise from a poor alignment of an upper-level ridge, resulting in a combination of unfavorable 10-15 kt flows between 300-100 hPa. Sea surface temperatures are slightly favorable, between 27-28C, but should decrease markedly after about 36 hours as Five-E tracks across a sharp thermal gradient into the stable subtropics. The tropical depression is expected to track towards the north, perhaps slightly east of north, as it is tugged by a westward-trending inverted upper-trough currently over Baja California. As it follows this trough, it will deflect towards the west after day 2 with the trough speeding by. This should place Five-E squarely over a hostile region of the East Pacific. Only the slightest intensification is projected in the short term within marginal conditions before rapid weakening ensues thereafter.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 23/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 23/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 24/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 24/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 25/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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