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Tropical Depression Dalila Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1008 mbar
Advisory 10 / 8:00 AM PDT Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Dalila is gradually deteriorating over the cooler waters of the Eastern Pacific. While the combination of the diurnal maximum and a more optimal shear profile allowed convection to deepen closer to the center of circulation, an 1148z SSMIS microwave pass shows that the underlying convective structure has become increasingly disorganized throughout the overnight hours. Much of the circulation remains largely exposed. Raw Dvorak values from SAB and TAFB both fell below T2.0/35kt, and this was substantiated by the scatterometer pass mentioned in the previous advisory. Due to the presence of 25 kt winds outside convection in the most recent SSMIS pass, the current intensity remains at 30 kt.

Despite improved flow aloft, the window of opportunity for Dalila to restrengthen has closed. Sea surface temperatures are currently analyzed at 24C and will settle around 22-23C throughout Dalila's path. Shear and dry air are not prohibitively excessive, so I would expect Dalila's convection to wane gradually throughout today rather than fizzle dramatically as is the case with many northward-trending East Pacific storms. The circulation will most likely be devoid of any organized deep convection tomorrow morning, at which time degeneration to a remnant low is depicted beneath a rarefied moisture layer.

The unfurling tropical depression has been curving towards the northwest over the last several hours as it begins to follow the easterly tradewinds associated with a fortifying ridge of high pressure over the northeast Pacific. By day 3 this motion should be fully west-northwest or west.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 25/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 25/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 26/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 26/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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