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Tropical Depression Five-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 1 / 2:00 AM PDT Monday, July 22, 2019

The fifth tropical depression of the East Pacific hurricane season has developed. An ASCAT-A pass at 0418z shows that the disturbance has developed a fairly well-defined low-level circulation center with maximum winds around 30 kt. In combination with recent convective activity near the center which is currently being sheared northeast to easterly, evident in infrared satellite imagery, the disturbance can be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity for Tropical Depression 05E is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data.

The depression is currently being sheared in a generally easterly direction (with a varying northerly component), with upper-level winds near 15 kt. These winds should remain below 20 kt, keeping shear below high thresholds, but they are not really expected to relax throughout the projected lifetime of this system. Mid-level relative humidity should be adequate for the storm for the next two days, but beyond that point they will steadily fall. This will coincide with a drop in sea surface temperature below 26C as the storm tracks northward into cooler waters, whereas the current ocean temperatures below the system are hovering around 28C. This should allow for some slow strengthening for the system over the next day or so into a tropical storm before conditions become increasingly marginal in supporting a tropical cyclone. By the end of day 2, the storm will have already been weakening and is expected to return to a tropical depression. By day 3, the unfavorable conditions of moderate shear, low mid-level moisture, and cool sea surface temperatures should result in degeneration into a remnant low, and dissipation completely shortly thereafter.

Five-E should track generally northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Around 48h, the ridge should build slightly westward as the storm begins to rapidly weaken, turning the track of the system to the west. The system is likely to degenerate into a trough around four days from now, when whatever is left of the system will turn southwest under the influence of the low-level trade winds.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 22/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 23/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 23/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 24/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 25/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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