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Tropical Depression Four-E Winds: 20 kt
Pressure: 1010 mbar
Advisory 7 / 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Four-E has been producing consistent small puffs of convection over the past few hours in the southeast quadrant of the exposed, but well-defined circulation. Though, in the most recent frames these storms are appearing smaller and weaker. An ASCAT-C pass at 0425z revealed only a small area of 20kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Given the weakening trend of the system, the initial intensity has been lowered to 20kt.

Upper-level winds over the system continue to be in excess of 20kt and may be as high as 30kt throughout the day today. Sea surface temperatures below Four-E have fallen to 27C and are only expected to decrease as the system tracks west-northwest. Mid-level humidity will continue to fall as well. The weak depression is on its last legs and will likely become a remnant low within six to twelve hours, once convection ceases near the center. The depression will then turn toward the west under the influence of low-level trade winds and quickly degenerate as a result of the unfavorable conditions around 48h.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 20 KT 25 MPH

12H 14/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 15/0600Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 15/1800Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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