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Tropical Depression Four-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1007 mbar
Advisory 5 / 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Four-E is on its last leg as a tropical cyclone. The deep convection that existed this morning has been whisked away by hostile easterly wind shear, leaving a bare albeit well-defined circulation behind. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB have both fallen to T1.5/25kt, through their current intensity values are higher at 30kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. With upper-level winds on the order of 20kt, ocean temperatures falling under 26C within 18 hours, and an ever-stable airmass engulfing the cyclone, Four-E is expected to degenerate to a remnant low 12 hours from now. Dissipation is expected in about 3 days. The depression has been moving on a steady west-northwest course, but should turn west or even west-southwest as it becomes embedded in the low-level easterly trade wind flow across the East Pacific.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 14/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 14/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 15/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 15/1800Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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