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Tropical Depression Four-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1005 mbar
Advisory 4 / 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Somewhat favorable conditions have allowed for the tropical depression in the eastern Pacific to retain the singular and small convective burst that began in the late evening yesterday in the face of 20 kt easterly shear. This convective pouch has been quite impressive, with a deep signal on an AMSR2 microwave pass at 0856z. The convective activity has been impressive enough to keep CIMSS-ADT satisfied at T2.5/35kt, but SAB and TAFB have only increased their subjective estimates marginally to T2.0/30kt. Given the suspected temporality of the convection, the intensity for Four-E remains at 30 kt.

A shallow system, Four-E is expected to continue tracking generally towards the west with the tropical easterlies, though its vorticity and slight pressure depression call for a track slightly north of due west. As noted in the previous advisory, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate with time as Four-E enters cooler ocean waters. Moisture content rapidly decreases farther west, and combined with the forecast for persistent easterly shear, will do Four-E no favors. The present convective mass is expected to wither off later today. Although the convection has been somewhat unexpectedly persistent, no change to the intensity forecast as weakening is expected from here on out given the environment.


FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 14/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 14/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 15/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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