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Tropical Depression Four-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 3 / 02:00 AM PDT Saturday, July 13, 2019

Four-E's convective burst has expanded since the last advisory. The little depression continues to have a well-defined low-level circulation, as well. Dvorak estimates from SAB have risen to T1.5/25kt, while TAFB remains T2.0/30kt at 06z. A partial ASCAT-C pass missed the center of the depression to the east, revealing a small region of 20kt winds. Given the continuity of the low-level circulation and similar satellite representation as during the last advisory, Four-E continues to be 30 kts.

Four-E continues to be pelted by easterly wind shear which is only forecast to continue to increase. The depression is also heading into cooler waters as it tracks west-northwesterly along the periphery of a subtropical ridge. Where SSTs are 28-29C now, they will be near 27C in 24h and dropping below 26C shortly thereafter. Mid-level humidity is not expected to stick around either, decreasing significantly even in the next 12 to 18 hours. As a result, the forecast is for the system to maybe maintain its intensity into the morning today, but weakening should ensue by the afternoon and evening as the increasingly unfavorable environment takes its toll. By this time tomorrow, the depression will likely degenerate into a remnant low and the system will dissipate entirely likely sometime on Monday as the system begins to track more westerly in the low-level trade winds.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 13/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 14/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 14/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 15/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 16/0600Z..DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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