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Tropical Depression Four-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 2 / 8:00 PM PDT Friday, July 12, 2019

Four-E is taking a page from former Cosme's playbook in being an absolute disaster of a tropical cyclone. The wide swath of deep convection that existed around the time of the first advisory dissipated a few hours ago, and for a while the storm was mainly composed of upper-level outflow. Since that time, an area of concentrated thunderstorm activity has redeveloped west of the low-level circulation. Of course, this has not helped satellite intensity estimates, with T1.0/25kt from SAB and T2.0/30kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is set to a potentially generous 30kt on the basis of those latter estimates as well as the earlier ASCAT pass mentioned in the previous discussion.

Wind shear over Four-E has increased to around 20kt, keeping deep convection weighted west of the center. The fact that Four-E is struggling to maintain itself now does not bode well as we shave a degree off sea surface temperatures over the next day, and as mid-level relative humidity values steadily fall to unfavorable levels around 24 hours too. The SHIPS and LGEM, which depicted a 40kt cyclone last advisory package, struggle to reach tropical storm intensity now. The global models continue to struggle to even identify Four-E, while the hurricane models show no additional development. Therefore, Four-E is again not expected to reach tropical storm strength as it moves west-northwest. Instead, degeneration has been moved forward to 24 hours, around which point the remnant system may turn more westerly into the low-level easterly trade wind flow across the East Pacific.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 13/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 14/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 14/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 15/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 16/0000Z..DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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