|Post-tropical Cyclone Cosme||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1006 mbar|
|Advisory 6 / 8:00 PM PDT Sun July 7, 2019|
It's time to pull the plug on this storm. Cosme has never looked the part of a true tropical cyclone, and that is even more the case this evening. A small puff of convection existed in the northwestern semicircle around 18z, but like all previous thunderstorm activity over the past day and a half, it has been sheared and dried away. The circulation remains well defined, but alas that is only part of the tropical cyclone definition. I would not initiate advisories on Cosme if it looked like it does tonight, and by that metric I believe it is prudent to classify Cosme as a post-tropical cyclone at this time. The intensity is set to 30kt based on earlier ASCAT data. It is worth pointing out that SAB registered a "Too Weak" designation for the system; you do not see that often for a classified tropical cyclone.
Cosme is moving northwest and will continue on that trajectory for the next 2 days or so as it moves into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to its north. After that time, it should turn west in the low-level easterly trade wind flow. This will occur as the remnant low opens up into a trough.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED