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Tropical Storm Cosme Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1005 mbar
Advisory 5 / 8:00 AM PDT Sunday July 9, 2019

Cosme does not look any better than it did yesterday, and it certainly appears that the time horizon for any sort of strengthening has vanished. A singular area of weak convection managed to drift over the circulation - well progged by short-term model guidance - but this has fallen apart quickly. The earliest visibles show at least curved low-level cumulus banding, so there is at least a circulation still present. Given the preceding partial data from scatterometers available the last advisory, I've taken the liberty to consider Cosme still a tropical storm with marginal 35 kt winds, but acknowledge that this may certainly be optimistic given the storm's appearance.

The subsident atmosphere out ahead and around Cosme certainly isn't going away anytime soon. Cosme is drifting northwest into the sharp East Pacific temperature gradient, and is currently over marginal sea surface temperatures which are not enough to work against the abundance of dry air. In response, models across the board all indicate weakening, and the current intensity forecast remains largely unchanged. The disorganized and disheveled tropical cyclone is expected to slightly curve towards the west over time as ridging rebuilds over the northeastern Pacific.


FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 07/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 07/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 08/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 08/1200Z 20 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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