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Tropical Storm Cosme Winds: 45 kt
Pressure: 999 mbar
Advisory 1 / 8:00 AM PDT July 6, 2019

High-resolution satellite imagery this morning indicates that the trough of low-pressure roughly 500 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas has become sufficiently organized to be considered a tropical cyclone, with data supportive of naming the disturbance Tropical Storm Cosme. Despite the classification, Cosme is not particularly organized and is tilted eastward with height, leaving the low-level circulation mostly exposed. The deepest convection is arranged in a linear fashion well east of the circulation. Although the circulation's structure has improved since the 0450z ASCAT pass, the data suggests that the system is still rather elongated along a trough axis. Nonetheless, the data supports an initial intensity of 45 kt.

Cosme is currently tracking towards the west, and should begin to move more towards the west-northwest in response to an extended upper trough over California. Although current conditions are conducive for intensification, Cosme's elongated nature suggests that it will not be able to reap these conditions efficiently. Along the forecast path, sea surface temperatures are expected to gradually cool, dropping below 26C sometime around day 2. This is concurrent with a decrease in mid-level moisture as Cosme approaches a subsident patch of the Eastern Pacific. These factors favor solutions with only marginal strengthening and overall weakening, and statistical guidance is largely in agreement with this solution. By day 3, the atmosphere should be sufficiently dry to result in a transition to a remnant low.


FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 07/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 07/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 08/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 08/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 09/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH

96H 10/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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