|Tropical Storm Barbara||Winds: 35 kt|
|Pressure: 1003 mbar|
|Advisory 3 / June 30, 2019|
Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 3
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
8:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019
For a newly formed system, Barbara is rather robust. A large bulb of -80C cloud tops is evident in the storm's rather massive convective mass, though scatterometer and microwave data suggest that the center is displaced to the north or northeast of this convection as a result of narrow 15-20 kt mid-level northerly wind shear. A 1010z SSMI microwave pass showed rainband development in the storm's southern semicircle, with the strongest band near the center of circulation and limited to its southern half. SAB assessed T2.0/30kt, but given good agreement across all scatterometer data on the existence of higher winds, the intensity for Barbara remains at 35 kt in lieu of significant structural changes since the last advisory.
The track forecast for Barbara, at least within the next five days, is rather straightforward, simplified by a large ridge extending outwards from the Baja California to keep the storm on a west to west-northwesterly heading. Atmospheric conditions favor intensification in the forecast window as Barbara tracks away from the nearby upper-trough into the friendlier anticyclone regime in about a day. Moisture and sea surface parameters are more than sufficient to support strengthening, though the main unfavorable as hinted in the last advisory is the storm's lanky structure. This should slow intensification from its theoretical capability until a significant change in storm's organization - preferably a decrease in size - takes place. Dynamical guidance shows consolidation of the 500 hPa vorticity signature after about 36 hours, and if Barbara takes advantage of that change, rapid intensification may occur. Until then, rather gradual intensification is depicted, in line with the previous forecast discussion.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 70 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH120H 05/1200Z 85 KT 100 MPH