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Tropical Storm Barbara Winds: 40 kt
Pressure: 999 mbar
Advisory 25 / 8:00 PM PDT Fri July 5, 2019

The grim reaper knocks on Barbara's door. The storm has failed to muster any convection whatsoever since the last advisory, impeded by ocean temperatures under 25C, dry mid-level air, and wind shear over 25kt. Current intensity estimates have fallen to T2.5/35kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SAB. However, the initial intensity is set at a slightly higher 40kt on the basis of the earlier ASCAT pass which showed a wide swath of winds just under 50kt. Continued weakening is expected, and this is likely to be Barbara's final advisory as a tropical cyclone. Dissipation is expected about 2 days from now.

The storm has continued on its westward motion, steered by building mid-level ridging to its north. A west or even west-southwest trajectory will continue over the coming days thanks to the influence of the aforementioned ridge in addition to the typical low-level easterly trade wind flow across the Pacific. Barbara will pass close to the Hawaiian Islands about 3 days from now, but consequences are not likely to be noteworthy.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 06/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 07/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 07/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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