|Tropical Storm Barbara||Winds: 50 kt|
|Pressure: 994 mbar|
|Advisory 23 / 2:00 PM PDT Fri July 5, 2019|
Barbara is not long for this world. Upper-level winds in excess of 25kt have stripped the storm of all its convection, while the combination of dry mid-level air and ocean temperatures under 25C have prevented additional thunderstorm development. Thus, all that remains is a large but vigorous low-level circulation. A 1743z ASCAT pass revealed a wide swath of winds between 45-50kt to the north of the center. Thus, the initial intensity is set to 50kt, in line with the current intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT. Barbara has been without deep convection near the center for over seven hours now. If this convection does not return around or just after the next advisory, the storm will be considered a post-tropical cyclone.
Barbara has turned west today as mid-level ridging builds to its north and as the storm becomes steered by low-level easterly trade winds. This trajectory will continue for the next few days, bringing the remnants of Barbara close to the Hawaiian Islands in about 72 hours from now.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED