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Tropical Storm Barbara Winds: 55 kt
Pressure: 986 mbar
Advisory 23 / 8:00 AM PDT July 2, 2019

With Barbara firmly located in sea surface temperatures at or below 25C and a stable environment, rapid weakening is currently ongoing, exacerbated by moderate southerly wind shear. Satellite imagery shows indicates that the circulation center is now fully dislodged from the central convective activity, and microwave data confirms the isolation of the surface circulation. Due to weakening constraints, UW-CIMSS ADT estimates remained unusually high, at T4.4/75kt, though its final T# value registered at T3.5/55kt. This is in agreement with the current intensity of T3.5/65kt assessed by SAB. Given the rapid deterioration of the storm's organization, Barbara's current strength is assessed at the lower 55 kt value.

With the central dense overcast now sheared away within a stable atmosphere, it is unlikely that Barbara will be able to fire off much convection to salvage its stronger winds. As Barbara remains over cold waters, high-resolution guidance suggests that the central dense overcast will continue to shrivel and abate this afternoon. The circulation may be entirely devoid of deep convection by the evening or later tonight. Due to Barbara's low pressure, it may be able to retain relatively gusty winds for some time as it degenerates into a remnant low.

As Barbara shallows this afternoon, it will begin to follow an easterly flow regime as deep ridging strengthens across the northeastern Pacific, inducing a more westward track which is currently in progress. More robust ridging near Hawaii may result in a track slightly south of west by around day 3. This may place Barbara's remnants in the vicinity of Hawaii by day 4, but there is little model support for the weakened storm to be anything stronger than a diffuse low-pressure system with moderately gusty winds.


FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 06/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 06/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 07/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 07/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 08/1200Z 20 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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