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Hurricane Barbara Winds: 100 kt
Pressure: 953 mbar
Advisory 19 / 8:00 AM PDT July 4, 2019

Barbara continues to weaken this morning, though the diurnal maximum helped to initiate some colder cloud tops that have kept the hurricane's core nice and frosty for now. Still, infrared satellite images show that the central dense overcast has become progressively ragged, particularly in the southern semicircle, with a frilled pattern along the edge indicative of colder waters and drier air. Indeed, a microwave pass at 1041z showed that the eyewall had finally blown open to the south with rainbands near that opening deteriorating radially. UW-CIMSS ADT CI values have gradually diminished to T5.5/102kt, with SAB in agreement. Given the rather stable weakening state of the system and generally optimistic microwave estimates, the current intensity is lowered only slightly to 100 kt.

The hurricane continues on a northwesterly heading but will trend westward over time as it weakens, guided by the dominant ridging over the subtropical East Pacific. Barbara is already over 26-27C waters and is expected to traverse 25C waters later today as it glides into the thermocline. Shear is beginning to mount from the interface between upper-level ridging and a trough over the eastern Pacific, and this shear will rapidly uptick over the next two days. Combined with a stable environment, this should induce significant weakening at an accelerated pace.


FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 05/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH

24H 05/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 06/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 06/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 07/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 08/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH....POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 09/1200Z....DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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