Hurricane Barbara Winds: 105 kt
Pressure: 951 mbar
Advisory 18 / 2:00 AM PDT Thu July 4, 2019

Barbara's satellite representation has deteriorated significantly this morning. Despite convection in the CDO flaring up slightly, the eye has become more ragged and is beginning to fill in, cooling significantly on infrared satellite imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB came in at T4.5/77kt with a Current Intensity of T5.5/102kt. Latest UW-CIMSS ADT gives a final estimate of T5.5/102kt and a current intensity of T5.8/110kt. A blend of these current intensities gives an initial intensity of 105 kt.

Little has changed in regards to the track and intensity forecast. Barbara is moving northwest along a track which will take it over a northward-extending tongue of 26-27C for the next 18-24 hours or so, which should stave off rapid weakening for today. Beyond this point, waters will begin to be too cold to support the storm and throughout the day tomorrow shear will increase which will destabilize the system allowing for further intrusion of dry, stable air, and this combination of factors will result in rapid weakening (with the intensity forecast further adjusted downward). Around the same time (day 2), a ridge will build north of Barbara and the weakened storm will be steered by the low-level trade wind flow, causing the system to turn west or even south of west by day 3, at which point the system will likely already have degenerated into a remnant low.


INIT 04/0900Z 105 KT 120 MPH

12H 04/1800Z 90 KT 115 MPH

24H 05/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 05/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 06/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 07/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 08/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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