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Hurricane Barbara Winds: 115 kt
Pressure: 946 mbar
Advisory 17 / 8:00 PM PDT Wed July 3, 2019

Barbara continues to slowly spin down this evening. The eye has cooled ever so slightly, and this has been matched by a central dense overcast that has slightly warmed. Satellite intensity estimates at 0z were T5.5/102kt from both SAB and TAFB; however, the latter organization had a current intensity value of T6.5/127kt. UW-CIMSS ADT, meanwhile, has both an final estimate and a current intensity estimate of T5.9/112kt. A blend of the current intensity values yields an initial intensity of 115kt.

The hurricane is nearing the 27C isotherm, which means it still has several hours over sufficiently warm water. Wind shear remains near 5kt and will likely not begin to increase until tomorrow morning. Thus, the biggest detriment to Barbara over the next few hours will continue to be environmental dry air which slowly erodes the edges of the central dense overcast, warming convection and bringing down Dvorak estimates. Later tomorrow, upper-level winds will begin to increase over 10kt and ocean temperatures will fall under 26C. Rapid weakening should ensue, bringing the storm to remnant low status in about 72 hours. Dissipation is expected in 5 days.

There is nothing new to discuss with the track forecast. Barbara is moving northwest and will move northwest for about 48 hours. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is expected due to two factors. One, mid-level ridging will build north of the cyclone. Two, Barbara will weaken and be steered by dominant low-level easterly trade winds across the Central and East Pacific. This trajectory will bring Barbara close to the Hawaiian Islands in about 120 hours, though this is likely to be of little consequence given the shallow nature of the storm by that time.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 115 KT 130 MPH

12H 04/1200Z 100 KT 115 MPH

24H 05/0000Z 80 KT 90 MPH

36H 05/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 06/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

72H 07/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 08/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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