|Hurricane Barbara||Winds: 135 kt|
|Pressure: 934 mbar|
|Advisory 14 / July 3, 2019|
Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 14
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2019
Barbara's satellite appearance has deteriorated since last advisory, with a cooling eye and a more ragged, less symmetric, central dense overcast. The annularity of the system has also decreased with the generation of some spiral banding on the eastern side of the storm somewhat near the core. Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB have decreased at 06z, coming in at T6.0/115kt and T6.5/127kt, respectively, although Current Intensity estimates remain higher. With weakening appearing as slow as it does, winds are likely not decreasing at pace. A blend of the Current Intensity values yields an initial intensity of 135 kts, returning Barbara to category 4 strength.
A 0721z GPM microwave pass indicates that Barbara is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, likely triggered by the dry air intrusion mentioned in the previous advisory. Dry air will remain the main factor weakening Barbara as it slowly mixes into the storm until shear increases in around 36-48 hours and the hurricane moves over waters with lower ocean heat content tomorrow and marginal sea surface temperatures the day after that. By about 48 hours all factors will combine to weaken Barbara rapidly. The intensity forecast has only been adjusted slightly downward.
Barbara continues its west-northwest movement for the next day or so before it is expected to turn northwest as ridging to the north weakens. By around day 2 or 3, the ridge will build back in and steer Barbara more westerly as it rapidly weakens. The shallower system's track will be influenced by this ridge and the low-level easterly trades.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH120H 08/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW