|Hurricane Barbara||Winds: 115 kt|
|Pressure: 947 mbar|
|Advisory 11 / July 2, 2019|
Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 11
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 02 2019
Barbara is rapidly intensifying, with its eye and overall convective structure becoming much more pronounced over the last several hours. AMSR2 microwave imagery from 0910z showed a well-defined and circular eye was taking root, with a highly dynamic surge of deep convection buffering the eyewall. Within a highly conducive upper-level anticyclone regime, outflow is spreading rapidly in all directions. Presently, the only evident issue appears to be residual dry air wrapping into the circulation, but thus far Barbara has largely shaken off the issues that plagued the large East Pacific storms of yore. CIMSS-ADT and SAB are in agreement with their latest assessment of T6.0/115kt, though raw values have surged higher. The current intensity is set to 115 kt in concordance with these values.
The overall model guidance suite has come into good consensus regarding Barbara's track over the next five days, embarking on a more northwesterly course from its present west-northwesterly heading in about a day due to a slight weakness resulting from a upper-level low over the Central Pacific. A rebuilding ridge is expected to induce a more westerly track in three to four days.
Aside from dry air thwarting the system, there is little in the way of stopping Barbara's intensification today. Moisture content and thermodynamic profiles remain nearly ideal for intensification, and it is thus no surprise that SHIPS rapid intensification parameters are well above climatological means. A lack of considerable lightning in the storm's northwestern quadrant suggests that the somewhat dry air within the circulation is not really having an impact. Further intensification is entered in the forecast today with these current trends in mind, though the beginnings of an eyewall replacement cycle may take hold later today and slow intensification. Barbara will begin to enter cooler waters tomorrow, though the drop off in temperatures will not be as exceedingly fast as we saw with Alvin. A peak in strength is expected sometime tonight before weakening commences - initially slow to begin with, but accelerating as the hurricane reaches a more stable region. Current guidance and environmental conditions appear to support an intensity pathway close to that depicted by SHIPS.
INIT 02/1500Z 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH120H 07/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH