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Tropical Storm One-E Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2019

One-E has organized somewhat this morning. The system continues to sustain its deep convection in and around the center, although the focal point has shifted southward since the last advisory. Otherwise, the satellite representation remains fairly similar. Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB are in agreement with T2.5/35 kts at 06z, suggesting that One-E has increased in intensity. Unfortunately, the several ASCAT passes in the area this morning missed to the east of the center, unable to give a good indication of the system's strength. Based on Dvorak, this forecaster's subjective satellite estimate, and noting the lack of scatterometer data, the intensity of One-E has been raised to tropical storm strength.

One-E should continue to track generally west to west-northwestward under the influence of a ridge over northern Mexico. The west-northwestward track seems most likely, but ECMWF indicates a more southerly track which would limit northern movement. What track One-E takes would have an influence on when the system tracks over the 26C isotherm and begins to lose strength rapidly as a result of the loss of energy and instability. The more northerly track solutions keep One-E over favorable SSTs for around 48 hours, while the more southerly track would likely be able to support the storm for longer, and with the southern migration of convection already observed, this possibility should be given some consideration. Mid-level moisture should be adequate for the storm until it weakens and decouples over cool SSTs, although the storm is moving westward into much drier air which may mix in. Wind shear should remain fairly low and easterly throughout the life cycle of the storm, which should prevent dry air from being as likely to intrude and become a serious issue.

The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward slightly and intensity is held for longer as a result of the increased likelihood of a more southerly track, but once the storm encounters cool SSTs it is expected to rapidly deteriorate.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 26/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 27/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 27/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 29/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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