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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2019

One-E has changed little in organization over the past few hours. Deep convection continues to pulse over the center, with hints of a spiral band to the west of this convective mass. Upper-level outflow is great to the west but somewhat restricted to the east, suggesting the potential for some light easterly wind shear. Although satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30kt, which is the intensity used for this advisory, a series of microwave passes around 20z showed a fairly well-defined low-level core structure. With any luck, a series of ASCAT passes will give us a solid estimate of the system's strength shortly.

Wind shear is expected to be generally light over the next 36 hours. Coupled with warn ocean temperatures and at least a marginally moist mid-level airmass, the environment is expected to be supportive of One-E intensifying into a tropical storm tomorrow. The biggest limiting factor will continue to be the fact that the system is embedded within a broader area of enhanced low-level spin, making consolidation and rapid strengthening less likely. The SHIPS and LGEM continue to highlight a weak tropical storm, and little change has been made to the intensity forecast during this package. The system continues on a west-northwest track, and this trajectory should continue until it degenerates to a remnant low, at which time a turn toward the west or even west-southwest is expected.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 26/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 27/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 27/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 28/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 29/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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