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Post-tropical Cyclone Alvin Discussion Number 15

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019

Alvin continues to weaken as what remains of its convection is completely stripped away from the low-level circulation by the mid and upper-level flow. SAB estimated the system as T1.5/25kt at 06z, although the Current Intensity is high enough to support tropical storm strength. Given the rapid pace of weakening which has occurred thus far, the lower estimate supports an initial intensity of 25 kts. Combined with the fact that the storm has ceased to produce any new convection since the last advisory and that it is not likely to produce any more in the future, it is concluded that Alvin has degenerated to a remnant low.

The remnants of Alvin will continue to experience hostile conditions of increasing southwesterly shear, falling mid-level relative humidity, and sea surface temperatures of 23C and cooler. The shallow remnants, currently moving west-northwest, will begin to track more westerly under the influence of the low-level trade winds until their dissipation in 24-36 hours.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12H 29/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 30/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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