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Hurricane Alvin Discussion Number 10

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019

How naive of me to doubt the HWRF. Despite my best attempts to hand-wave its solutions as outliers, I have failed. Alvin has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory, with a much more symmetric central dense overcast on conventional infrared imagery. An eye has been intermittently evident on visible imagery; of course, this feature has existed on microwave satellite since the pre-dawn hours. Satellite intensity estimates were T4.0/65kt from SAB and T4.4/74.6kt from UW-CIMSS ADT at 0z; that latter value has fallen a bit as of late. Therefore, the initial intensity is raised to 65kt, making Alvin a Category 1 hurricane.

Despite Alvin intensifying more than forecast, the window for further organization is closing as wind shear increases and the storm enters cooler ocean temperatures. Therefore, pretty swift weakening is expected to begin shortly, and Alvin should degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours. Dissipation is expected about a day later. The storm continues to move generally west-northwest, and this trajectory should continue until Alvin degenerates, at which time a curve toward the west is anticipated.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 28/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 29/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 29/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

48H 30/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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