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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 9

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane has exploded in strength today, with the formation and clearing of a large eye surrounded by intense convection. Satellite intensity estimates were T4.5/77kt from SAB and T5.0/90kt from TAFB at 18z. The most recent value from UW-CIMSS ADT was much higher at T6.0/115kt. A blend of these numbers supports raising the initial intensity to 95kt, leaving Lane just shy of major hurricane intensity.

The environment is favorable, with shear under 10kt, ocean temperatures above 28C, and plenty of mid-level moisture. Lane's large eye means that eyewall replacement cycles are not imminent, and so the updated forecast shows the storm becoming a Category 4 hurricane within 24 hours. It is expected to maintain strength until after 48 hours, when increasing westerly wind shear should prompt a weakening trend.

Lane is moving to the west on the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the Pacific. A nudge toward the west-northwest is expected over the course of the next 72 hours thanks to a subtle weakness located south of the aforementioned ridge. By day 4 and 5, however, high pressure is expected to intensify and force Lane back to the west. Such a trajectory is likely to keep the major hurricane south of the Hawaiian Islands, with a pass approximately as close as Hector before it.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 17/2100Z 95 KT 110 MPH

12H 18/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 18/1800Z 120 KT 140 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC

36H 19/0600Z 125 KT 145 MPH

48H 19/1800Z 120 KT 140 MPH

72H 20/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH

96H 21/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 22/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH

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