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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 8

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane continues to become better organized this morning. Satellite imagery shows it has shed the numerous spiral bands it maintained earlier, instead opting to become more dominated by its central dense overcast; this a sign of hurricanes likely to strength significantly in the short term. Even as dry air attempts to slow this process, satellite intensity estimates are increasing. The initial intensity has been set to 70kt, not quite as high as T4.5/77kt from SAB.

Wind shear is low, ocean temperatures are warm, and the stage is set for rapid intensification over the coming days. There are no new changes to report, with the two biggest modulators of the hurricane's intensity likely to be intermittent dry air intrusions, as well as eyewall replacement cycles that cannot be predicted accurately in advance. Lane is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow and reach its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane thereafter, before increasing wind shear causes the storm to weaken on days 4 and 5.

Lane is beginning to move west-northwest toward a weakness underneath broad subtropical ridging north of the storm. This should continue through day 4, at which point the weakness should dissipate and high pressure should rebuild, forcing Lane toward the west. It is with increasing confidence that I can say Lane should remain south of the Hawaiian Islands. This is not yet guaranteed, however.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 17/0900Z 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 17/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 18/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH

36H 18/1800Z 110 KT 125 MPH

48H 19/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC

72H 20/0600Z 120 KT 140 MPH

96H 21/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH

120H 22/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH