Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 7
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018
Lane is now a hurricane. Although dry air entrainment from the northeast caused the storm's cloud pattern to deteriorate a few hours ago, deep convection has more recently developed around the center, with a warmer spot in the most recent infrared frame heralding the formative eye. Satellite intensity estimates were T4.0/65kt from both SAB and TAFB, and the initial intensity has been set to 65kt.
Shear is below 10kt, ocean temperatures are above 28C, and mid-level relative humidity are near 70 percent. The combination of these factors should allow for steady to rapid intensification over the coming days, with the DTOPS continuing to post high probabilities for such an event to occur. As mentioned in the previous advisory, the main modulators to Lane's intensity will be intermittent dry air intrusions like we saw earlier, as well as eyewall replacement cycles that cannot be accurately predicted well in advance. The GFS, HMON, and HWRF continue to point to a Category 4 hurricane and so the updated forecast remains generally unchanged.
Broad subtropical ridging north of Lane is keeping the storm on a steady westward track across the East Pacific. This motion will continue for the next 12 hours or so, with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as a weakness in the mid to upper-levels south of the ridge creates a poleward tug on Lane. By day 5, this weakness will become less apparent and high pressure will re intensify, forcing the storm back westward. At this point, Lane still appears likely to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, but this is still far from guaranteed.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 17/0300Z 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC
72H 20/0000Z 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH