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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 5

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

The overall cloud pattern of Lane has become better organized since the previous advisory, with an even more prominent spiral band and more centrally-focused convection. Satellite intensity estimates were T3.4/53kt and T3.5/55kt from SAB, which supports raising the initial intensity to 55kt. There have been no recent microwave passes to assess the inner core structure of Lane.

Some light to moderate northeasterly wind shear should continue to affect Lane throughout the day today, but a reduction in these upper-level winds is expected by tomorrow. This should set the stage for steady to rapid intensification as the storm moves over warm waters in a moist environment. The main factor dictating intensity throughout the forecast period is likely to be structural changes as is typical for intense hurricanes.

Lane is moving west and will continue on that path for the next 48 hours to the south of expansive subtropical ridging. On days 3 to 5, this ridge should weaken as upper-level troughing develops beneath it, allowing Lane to move more toward the west-northwest. On day 5, a this trough should become less prominent, allowing mid-level ridging to become reestablished and force Lane back toward the west. At this time, the most likely scenario is for the system to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, but this is far from guaranteed right now.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 16/0900Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 16/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH

24H 17/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 17/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH

48H 18/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH

72H 19/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC

96H 20/0600Z 120 KT 140 MPH

120H 21/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH

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