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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Lane has changed only a little in organization since the previous advisory, with convection cooler than -80C over the center and the formation of an outer spiral band. Visible satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level circulation is located closer to the northern edge of this central dense overcast, with no signs of a developing inner core yet. Satellite intensity estimates were T3.0/45kt from SAB and TAFB at 0z, with more recent values of 51kt from SATCON and T3.5/55kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. A blend of these values supports raising the initial intensity to 50kt.

Northeasterly shear on the order of 10kt continues to affect Lane and should continue to affect the storm over the next 12 to 18 hours. Thereafter, upper-level winds will slacken and allow more vigorous intensification as Lane progresses over warm ocean temperatures in a moist environment. The DTOPS continues to point to a nearly 7-in-10 chance of 55kt rapid intensification over the next 48 hours, supporting the bullish forecast below. Other model guidance has changed little and so little change is necessary at this time. The strength of Lane will be relegated to inner core processes on days three, four, and five.

Lane is moving west and will continue on that path for the next 48 hours to the south of expansive subtropical ridging. On days 3 to 5, this ridge should weaken as upper-level troughing develops beneath it, allowing Lane to move more toward the west-northwest. On day 5, a this trough should become less prominent, allowing mid-level ridging to become reestablished and force Lane back toward the west. At this time, the most likely scenario is for the system to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, but this is far from guaranteed right now.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 16/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 16/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 17/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 17/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 18/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH

72H 19/0000Z 105 KT 120 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC

96H 20/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH

120H 21/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH