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Tropical Storm Fourteen Discussion Number 14

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Fourteen has become much better organized since the previous advisory, with the development and expansion of convection colder than -70C over its well-defined center. The spiral band ahead of the center continues to produce deep convection and has also become even more distinct since classification. I have raised the initial intensity to a possibly conservative 35kt, making Fourteen a tropical storm.

Fourteen is still being impacted by about 10kt of northeasterly shear based on vortex-averaged soundings from the GFS, and this shear should persist for the next 48 hours or so. After that, as upper-level high pressure becomes well established, shear should become exceptionally favorable for intensification. With warm ocean temperatures and mid-level relative humidity values close to 90 percent averaged across Fourteen's circulation, steady if not rapid intensification is expected. The only change to this forecast has been to show Fourteen becoming a major hurricane by day 5 after entering the Central Pacific.

Fourteen continues its westward path, and this west or just south of westward trajectory should continue for the next 72 hours thanks to broad ridging north of the storm. On days 4 and 5, a trough drifting southwest should weaken the southern periphery of the ridge and allow Fourteen to move west-northwest or northwest.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 15/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 15/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 16/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 16/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 17/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 18/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 19/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC

120H 20/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH

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