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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 11

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

After topping out at 125kt this morning, Lane has leveled off in intensity. The eye is not as warm as it once was, and convection around the eye has warmed from -70C earlier today to around -64C now. This has resulted in decreasing Dvorak values, with T5.5/102kt from TAFB, T5.9/112.4kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, and T6.0/115kt from SAB. Nonetheless, current intensity estimates are 115kt, 120kt, and 120kt, respectively, and so the initial intensity is only reduced to 120kt. Wind shear remains low, ocean temperatures remain warm, and the environment is plenty moist, so although the current forecast shows a slow decline in strength over the next 72 hours, it would not be surprising if Lane maintained its intensity longer than anticipated. Increasing westerly upper-level winds on days 4 and 5 should cause substantial weakening.

Lane is moving west-northwest and should continue on that path for the next 48 hours unabated. On days 3 and 4, a westward turn is expected as mid-level ridging to the north of the hurricane intensifies. By day 5, however, Lane should reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge and begin to curve west-northwest to northwest again. This should keep the hurricane south of the Hawaiian Islands.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 18/2100Z 120 KT 140 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC

12H 19/0600Z 120 KT 140 MPH

24H 19/1800Z 115 KT 130 MPH

36H 20/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH

48H 20/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 21/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH

96H 22/1800Z 75 KT 85 MPH

120H 23/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH

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