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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 10

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane has continued to rapidly intensify this evening, with convective bursts near -70C becoming axisymmetrized around an eye that has warmed to at least 7C. This has resulted in satellite estimates of T5.5/102kt from TAFB, 106kt from SATCON, T5.8/109.8kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, and T6.0/115kt from SAB. A blend of these estimates supports raising the initial intensity to 110kt, making Lane a major hurricane on the doorsteps of becoming a Category 4.

There are no obvious impediments to Lane over the next 72 to 96 hours, with wind shear under 10kt, ocean temperatures near 28C, and abundant mid-level moisture. The hurricane continues to have an abnormally eye as evidenced by conventional and microwave satellite images, making eyewall replacement cycles unlikely in the immediate future. Therefore, continued intensification close to the theoretical maximum intensity is expected over the next 36 hours, with persistence advertised thereafter. On days 4 and 5, westerly shear from a TUTT across the Central Pacific will aid in dry air entrainment and spark a weakening trend. The updated forecast is a little above the previous one except at day 5.

Lane is now moving west-northwest under the influence of a subtle mid- to upper-level weakness south of broad subtropical ridging that exists across the Pacific. This motion should continue for the next 3 to 4 days, with a turn toward the west advertised thereafter as high pressure intensifies further. This set of events should keep Lane to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, just like Hector before it.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 18/0300Z 110 KT 125 MPH

12H 18/1200Z 120 KT 140 MPH

24H 19/0000Z 130 KT 150 MPH...ENTERING CENTRAL PACIFIC

36H 19/1200Z 130 KT 150 MPH

48H 20/0000Z 125 KT 145 MPH

72H 21/0000Z 120 KT 140 MPH

96H 22/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH

120H 23/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH