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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 9

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 8 2018

Kristy remains steady state this evening. Deep convection has been firing consistently, but this convection is offset from the center with no true organization. Satellite intensity estimates ranged from T2.0/30kt from SAB to T2.7/39kt from UW-CIMSS ADT to T3.0/45kt from TAFB. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 40kt. While upper-level winds have slackened, mid-level shear is expected to persist for a few more hours before decreasing. This may open an avenue for some very brief intensification before Kristy tracks over colder waters and into a drier environment. The updated forecast isn't dissimilar to the previous one, except to bring post-tropical designation forward to day 4.

Kristy has turned northwest and should curve toward the north tomorrow as it gets pulled toward the circulation of Hurricane John. Models still diverge in the ultimate fate of Kristy, with the GFS showing a merging with John while the ECMWF keeps the two storms separate. Regardless, Kristy is not expected to be a threat to land.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/0300Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 09/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 10/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 10/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 11/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 12/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

96H 13/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 14/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW