Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 8
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 8 2018
Kristy has struggled to put convection over its center of circulation this afternoon as dry air and what appears to be narrow thickness westerly shearing is keeping conditions over the center unfavorable. A rise in convective activity over the center at around 15z quickly dissipated, leaving the center covered in some cirrus debris. Still, satellite imagery shows a variety of rainbands, mostly in a rainshield directly east of the center and extending outwards south of the center of circulation. Microwave data from the last few hours resolves these bands well, and indicates they may be hotspots for later convective activity, but also observe the shower-free center. All considered, Kristy has not changed much this early afternoon. UW-CIMSS ADT have remained steady at T2.3/33kt. TAFB have maintained T4.0/45kt with agreement between Dvorak parameters. With objective and subjective values holding steady, the current intensity has also been maintained at 40 kt as a blend between these values.
Kristy is currently curving towards the north, and at its current juncture is presently moving towards the west-northwest. Statistical guidance is in good agreement over a northerly to north-northeasterly track commencing sometime tomorrow afternoon. Models diverge after about 72 hours over whether to continue Kristy towards the north-northeast in the direction of John's large circulation or curve west with the subtropical easterlies as the storm weakens. In either case, the storm's intensity future should be more or less the same. At 72 hours, model track guidance are generally at the same latitude. Sea surface temperatures by that time are expected to have decreased to unsupportive values, providing an inconducive environment for tropical development when copled with low humidity values and a lack of entering intensity from Kristy. Until that point, most environmental parameters remain marginal for development, with the most favorable conditions for convective growth likely occuring tomorrow before the system gradually tapers off.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 08/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW