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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 5

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Kristy is woefully disorganized this evening, with convection scattered throughout its circulation with no real organization. Satellite intensity estimates ranged from T2.3/33kt from UW-CIMSS ADT to T2.5/35kt from SAB and TAFB. Given that there have been no ASCAT passes since the one at 18z that showed peak winds of 40kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35kt. Kristy is currently being sheared by a nearby upper-level low, but this shear is expected to lessen tomorrow. Over marginal water temperatures and in a relatively moist environment, some strengthening is still forecast to occur. The HWRF and HMON continue to showcase a hurricane, while the GFS depicts a strong tropical storm and the SHIPS/LGEM show only minor intensification. Given its setbacks today, the peak intensity has been slightly lowered, but still calls for Kristy to become a strong tropical storm within 48 hours before colder waters and drier air causes weakening. Kristy should degenerate to a remnant low on day 5.

The system is currently moving west, dictated by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The culmination of an upper-level low and nearby Hurricane John should cause this ridge to weaken over the next day, causing the system to turn  north. By day 5, the large circulation of John should curve Kristy back northwest. It is worth pointing out that if Kristy does not strengthen appreciably as forecast, there is likely to be less influence the weakening ridge and nearby John, and a more westward trajectory could come to fruition.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 08/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 08/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 09/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 09/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 10/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 11/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 12/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

120H 13/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW