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Tropical Depression Kristy Discussion Number 18

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Kristy completely disintegrated this morning. The deep convection once associated with the storm became elevated around 09z and was reduced to cirrus debris in a matter of hours. All that remains is low-level stratiform banding and one tiny area of active convection likely initiated by convergent activity left behind by the old decaying storms north of the center of circulation, but this too should pass. 37 GHz data from an AMSR2 microwave pass at 1032Z and an SSMI pass at 1136Z still showed a well-defined low-level circulation. At 06z, an ASCAT pass indicated a fairly symmetric but narrow ring of gale-force winds within the late night bursting convection. However, the sheer rapidity of the convective decay this morning leaves me to believe that Kristy is likely not producing tropical storm winds at this time. UW-CIMSS ADT values have fallen to T1.5/25kt, which as low as can be. I have reduced the intensity of Kristy to a 30 kt tropical depression for this advisory based on the system's current apperance and the late-night scatterometer data.

The struggling tropical depression is still tracking more or less towards the north in the general direction of John, but will be shifting its heels towards a west-northwesterly heading today given its weakened state. No new organized convective activity is expected from Kristy this afternoon as the system is over 22°C waters, so transition to a remnant low is likely to be indicated next advisory. Kristy should continue to drift towards the west-northwest or west with the dominant tradewinds before dissipating

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 11/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 11/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 12/1200Z 25 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 12/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 13/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 14/1200Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED