Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018
The structural integrity of Kristy has collapsed, with a 0037z SSMIS microwave pass showing only half of an eyewall, along with dry air wrapping into the circulation. Convection is bursting over the center, but with little true organization. Satellite intensity estimates were T2.5/35kt from SAB, with T3.0/45kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. Given a gradual spin-down, the intensity has been set to 50kt. There has been little change to the forecast, with an increasingly dry environment and ocean temperatures between 22-23C likely to cause steady weakening. Kristy should degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours before dissipating around day 5.
Kristy is moving toward the north, with a turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest expected in a few days as it becomes a shallower cyclone steered by low-level trade wind flow.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 11/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW