Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 16

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

In contrast to the morning intensification run of Tropical Storm Kristy, there are indications this afternoon that the cyclone's convective activity is lagging behind the low-level circulation center. Convective activity appears to be shifted somewhat south of the center has seen by a contrast between the predominantly low-level northern semicircle and convective southern semicircle seen on daytime convective RGB enhancement. Cloud tops, however, remain cool and continues to fire, though the convective focus has not moved. Microwave data from GMI at 1811z showed a highly fragmented core structure, with only partial elements of a largely disparate eyewall. Current intensity values from UW-CIMSS ADT have held at T3.3/51kt, but raw values have fallen from a T3.5/55kt maximum to T2.7/39kt. Similarly, while SAB constrained current intensity values held to T4.5/77kt, raw values are at T3.5/55kt. SATCON parameters have a strong 51kt consensus across member values. Given that the vertical circulation of the storm has tilted, the intensity for this advisory has decreased slightly to 55 kt.

The northward motion of Kristy continues as the storm attempts to rendezvous with the nearby remnants of what was once Hurricane John. However, as John weakens, Kristy is expected to curve northwest as it instead follows low-level easterlies. Falling sea surface temperatures through the next five days are expected to allow Kristy's convective action to diminish, resulting in a steady weakening of the tropical cyclone. Eventually, convection will


INIT 10/2100Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 11/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 11/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 12/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 12/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 13/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 14/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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