Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 15
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018
Kristy has attempted at various points during the morning to craft an eye both internally and externally but has so far been unable to do so successfully, though many a warm spot have been seen on infrared imagery. An SSMI microwave pass from 1153z observed that while an eyewall was trying to form at the low-levels, the mid-level convection was comparatively less cooperative, showing only a curved band east of the storm's center of circulation with only marginal wrapping around the supposed low-level eye. An AMSR2 scan from 0950z led to the same conclusions. SAB estimated T4.5/65kt on an embedded center while UW-CIMSS gave a value of T3.1/47kt though raw values were at T3.5/55kt and highly dependent on the precise center fix, with variability as high as +/- T0.7 within a 1x1 degree area. Given not too much change from the last advisory, the intensity for Kristy remains at 60 kt. We'll have to see if the latest attempt at a warm spot materializes into an actual eye.
Kristy is tracking steadily to the north-northeast as it paces towards the weakening Tropical Storm John. John is losing its potency at the mid-levels fairly quickly, and in two days John might not be influential enough to continue dragging Kristy northward. A resulting westward or northwestward return to the low-level trade wind flow is anticipated beginning in around 48 hours. Given the system's organization, it is possible that Kristy may make a final push for hurricane intensity later today as the system lines itself up on the divergent side of an upper-level trough. SHIPS diagnostic output suggests sea surface temperatures are quite unfavorable where Kristy is currently located, but Reynolds analysis and the current convective action suggest otherwise. As Kristy tracks further north, however, sea surface temperatures are decreasing, and vertical temperature profiles are largely unsupportive of continued convection after today. Thus, a steady decline to remnant low status should begin tomorrow, with the expected transition occuring in around three or so days.
MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST
INIT 10/1500Z 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW