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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 14

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Kristy is falling just short of hurricane strength this morning, with deep convection over the center. The overall cloud pattern isn't that organized thanks to dry air in close proximity, but microwave passes from this evening and overnight have shown a ragged eyewall. Therefore, the initial intensity has been left at 60kt, a blend of SAB's T3.5/55kt and TAFB's T4.0/65kt. Water temperatures have fallen below 26C and wind shear is beginning to decrease, so weakening should begin later this morning, culminating in its degeneration to a remnant low in about 72 hours. Dissipation is now expected around day 5, although this may need to be moved forward in later advisories.

Kristy is moving north-northeast and should continue in this direction as it's pulled toward the large circulation of Tropical Storm John. After 48 hours, it should commence a north or just west of due north track, remaining on that course for the remainder of the period as the steering regime collapses.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 10/0900Z 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 10/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 11/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 11/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 12/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 13/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 14/0600Z 20 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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