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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 13

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Kristy is almost a hurricane. Infrared imagery reveals deep convection expanding over the center the past few hours, with faint outlines of an eyewall in recent frames. This is confirmed by recent microwave images. Satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T3.5/55kt from SAB and TAFB at 0z, but given the increase in organization since that time, the initial intensity is set to 60kt. There is a brief window for Kristy to become a hurricane tonight before water temperatures decrease and shear increases. A gradual weakening trend should commence tomorrow, leading to Kristy degenerating to a remnant low in about 72 hours.

Kristy is moving north-northeast and should continue in this direction as it's pulled toward the large circulation of Tropical Storm John. After 48 hours, it should commence a north or just west of due north track, remaining on that course for the remainder of the period as the steering regime collapses.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 10/0300Z 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 10/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH

24H 11/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 11/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 12/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 13/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 14/0000Z 25 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 15/0000Z 20 KT 30  MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW