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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 12

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 9 2018

After forming a plentiful amount of core convection in the morning hours, an episode of dry air intrusion caused convective activity over the center of circulation to collapse. Since that time, a new area of deep convection has reemerged over Kristy's center. Still, part of the low-level circulation is apparent in the northeastern quadrant as this new region of showers continues to spread. A distinct curved band continues to wrap from the northern semicircle into the southwest quadrant, with an impressive cirrus crown spreading out towards Kristy's northwestern flanks. SAB gave a current intensity estimate of T3.0/45kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT has held out at T3.5/55kt for a current intensity. A blend of these suggests providing a 50 kt intensity for this advisory.

Kristy is now moving towards the north and north-northeast as it begins to be drawn towards the broad circulation of Tropical Storm John to the northeast. This motion is expected to continue towards the north to north-northeast as John is expected to remain in the general vicinity. Models remain divergent over whether to keep Kristy headed towards the nearby tropical storm or return west as the system shallows. Currently, an eventual northwestward turn in around four days is anticipated given the expected strength of Kristy, keeping it from being fully absorbed into John's circulation. Some intensification is possible this evening and later tonight within marginal conditions before stabilizing thermodynamic conditions caused by a fall in sea surface temperatures in around two days accelerates the weakening process.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/2100Z 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 10/0600Z 55 KT 60 MPH

24H 10/1800Z 50 KT 50 MPH

36H 11/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 11/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 12/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

96H 13/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 14/1800Z 25 KT 30  MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW