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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 10

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 9 2018

If there is an award for most boring tropical cyclone, it goes to Kristy. The cyclone continues to do absolutely nothing of note, firing deep convection over the center with no real organization. There have been no recent ASCAT or microwave passes, so the initial intensity remains 40kt in line with satellite estimates. Kristy is still expected to have an opportunity to strengthen today and tomorrow as shear relaxes and it remains over marginal ocean temperatures, as reflected by the GFS and ECMWF. After 48 hours, though, Kristy will pass into waters colder than 24C and enter a drier environment, causing weakening. Degeneration to a remnant low is expected around day 4.

Kristy appears to be moving northwest this morning, with a turn toward the north expected shortly as it begins to feel the influence of nearby Tropical Storm John. That trajectory is expected to continue for most of the period, with the potential for interaction with John or the potential for a turn toward the west-northwest depending on the exact proximity of the two cyclones.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 09/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 10/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 10/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 11/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 12/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

96H 13/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 14/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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